At the beginning of 2025, the failure to renew the contract between Ukraine and Russia for gas transit has sparked widespread debate and varying concerns among European countries, especially those heavily reliant on Russian gas flowing through Ukrainian territory. This disruption threatens significant economic and political impacts, with differing capacities among nations to handle the crisis.
Slovakia and Hungary: Between Reliance on Russian Gas and Seeking Alternatives
Slovakia: Major Challenges
- Dependence on Russian: Slovakia relies on 85% of its gas supply from Russia, making it one of the most vulnerable European countries to the gas cutoff.
- Logistical Challenges: The lack of ports and sufficient infrastructure for importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) makes it difficult to find quick alternatives.
- Negotiations with Ukraine: Slovakia is trying to persuade Ukraine to allow the transit of the gas through its territory, but geopolitical tensions complicate these efforts.
- Economic Impact: The gas cutoff could lead to rising energy prices, increasing pressure on industries and citizens, especially during winter.
Hungary: The “Balkan Stream” Pipeline as a Partial Alternative
- Less Reliance on Ukraine: Hungary benefits from the “Balkan Stream” pipeline, which transports the gas through the Black Sea, reducing its dependence on Ukraine.
- Long-Term Agreement: Hungary signed a 15-year agreement with Russia in 2021, but the gas cutoff via Ukraine may force it to seek additional sources.
- Future Challenges: Hungary may face difficulties in meeting domestic demand if tensions with Russia and Ukraine persist.
Serbia and Bulgaria: Diversifying Energy Sources as a Strategic Solution
Serbia: Heavy Reliance on Russia
- Dependence on Russia: Serbia imports 81% of its gas needs from Russia, making it highly vulnerable to supply disruptions.
- TAP Pipeline: Serbia is seeking to diversify its sources through the “TAP” pipeline, which transports Azerbaijani natural gas to Europe.
- Regional Cooperation: Serbia is strengthening ties with countries like Romania and Greece to import LNG through floating storage units.
Bulgaria: Reducing Dependence on Russia
- New Strategy: Bulgaria is working to reduce its reliance on Russian gas by increasing LNG imports and enhancing cooperation with countries like Azerbaijan.
- Alexandroupolis Terminal: Bulgaria has started using the LNG storage and regasification terminal in Alexandroupolis, with a capacity of 5.5 billion cubic meters.
- Economic Challenges: Despite efforts, the cost of alternative gas remains higher than Russian, putting pressure on Bulgaria’s economy.
Italy: A Successful Model in Reducing Dependence on Russian Gas
Italy’s Strategy
- Reducing Reliance on Russia: Italy has successfully reduced its dependence on Russian gas from 50% to 20% in less than 3 years.
- Agreements with Alternative Suppliers: Italy has signed long-term contracts with Algeria, Qatar, and Azerbaijan to ensure stable supplies.
- Investment in Renewable Energy: Italy is increasing investments in solar, wind, and green hydrogen to enhance energy independence.
Economic Challenges
- Cost of Alternative Gas: The cost of imported gas remains higher than Russian, increasing pressure on Italy’s economy.
- European Cooperation: Italy is working with EU countries to develop gas storage facilities and emergency mechanisms in case of pipeline disruptions.
Germany, France, and Austria: Reducing Dependence on Russian Gas
Germany: Leading the Energy Transition
- Reducing Reliance on Russia: Germany has gradually reduced its imports of Russian gas since 2022 and expanded its energy sources through LNG.
- Investment in Renewable Energy: Germany is increasing investments in solar and wind energy to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels.
France: Decreasing Dependence on Russia
- Decline in Imports: France has reduced its Russian gas imports from 20% to 10% of total consumption.
- Energy Diversification: France relies on nuclear energy as a primary energy source, reducing its dependence on Russian gas.
Austria: Eliminating Dependence on Russian Gas
- New Strategy: Austria is preparing to eliminate its dependence on Russian gas by contracting with alternative suppliers like Germany and Italy.
- Economic Challenges: Despite efforts, the cost of alternative gas remains higher than Russian gas, increasing pressure on Austria’s economy.
Comprehensive Analysis: Economic and Political Impacts
Economic Impacts
- Rising Energy Prices: The gas cutoff could lead to higher energy prices in Europe, increasing pressure on industries and citizens.
- Inflation: Rising energy prices could fuel inflation, affecting economic growth in Europe.
Political Impacts
- Geopolitical Tensions: The gas cutoff may increase tensions between Russia and Europe, with implications for international relations.
- European Cooperation: The crisis may push EU countries to enhance cooperation in energy and develop joint strategies.
Conclusion: The Future of Energy in Europe
Some European countries, such as Slovakia and Hungary, face significant challenges due to the Russian gas cutoff, while others like Italy and Germany have successfully reduced their reliance on Russian gas by diversifying energy sources. Europe will continue to face economic and political challenges in the coming years, with the need to strengthen regional cooperation and invest in renewable energy to ensure energy security.